The clamour for India

In February 2014, CAPA Aviation (a consulting firm) projected a combined annual loss of USD 1.2 billion for the three Indian carriers, Air India, Jet Airways and Spicejet. Go Air was expected to break even and Indigo would still be in profit but lower than what it earned last year. This has been the situation for the past many years. The government has poured money into Air India to keep it going, Spicejet saw new investors and Jet Airways sold stake to Abu Dhabi Based Etihad Airways. In an extremely price sensitive market losses of over a billion dollars can spell doom for the industry. But this has not deterred new entrant. Air Asia India and yet to be named TATA – Singapore Airlines joint venture will start operations this year. Apart from granting licenses to the new entrants the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA) was also busy discussing requests from Etihad, Emirates and Qatar Airways to increase the seat allocation in their respective bilateral air service agreements (ASA).

This might seem contradictory, on one hand the Indian airlines are suffering losses of over a billion dollar and on the other hand there are new airlines starting operations and foreign airlines want a larger share of seats. Why would someone invest money and efforts in a loss making market? The answer is simple. Despite the losses India remains an attractive market, thanks to its demography. In 2013, Indian airports processed approximately 97.67 million passengers, generating total revenue of USD 17 billion. And that’s when the total air passengers were only 8% of India’s population. Emerging economies like India have huge potential for air travel and it is obvious that airlines see this opportunity. What is then the reason for losses of Indian carriers is another story and has been told many times over by many people.

The interesting bit is the clamour for Indian market by the three Middle Eastern airlines. Etihad, after buying out 24% stake in Jet Airways managed to get its seat entitlement increased from 13,700 to 50,000 seats per week under a new ASA.  The increase will happen gradually over a period of three years. Emirates pushed for a 37% increase in its share but the government allowed only a 20% increase of 11,000 seats per week. Another Gulf carrier, Qatar Airways wants a 200% increase. Decisions on Qatar airways is pending, but likely to be considered at some stage.

It is no secrete that the Gulf carriers have been carrying fifth freedom traffic from India and hubbing them through Dubai, Abu Dhabi and more recently Doha. And that is precisely the reason why all three are so eagerly pursuing the matter with MoCA. A quick glance at the passenger numbers will give us an idea of the scale of the market these airlines are trying to tap into.

As mentioned above the 2013 saw total passenger traffic of 97.67 million. Out of this 55.67 million (57%) were domestic passengers and 42 million (43%) passengers flew to international destinations. The total revenue contribution of domestic passengers was USD 3.7 billion, a mere 22% of the total revenue of USD 17.1 billion.

Just a tiny bit more

Out of the 42 million international passengers, 66% or 27.51 million flew to destinations in the Middle East, Europe and North America. These passengers contributed USD 9 billion (67% of total) in revenues on these sectors. The Middle East is the largest of these three markets with a passenger share of 40% and a revenue share of 22%.

The geographic location of the Middle Eastern carriers gives them an advantage of having a one stop connection to markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Europe and North America. This is not only handy in offering cheap fares but also helps to develop their respective airports as international hubs. These airlines are in effect eyeing the huge intercontinental traffic that India offers. There are 27.5 million passengers, willing to pay USD 9 billion in fares to fly out of India.

The matter is not just restricted to the airlines. All the three airports are part of the larger government owned enterprise which owns them together with their respective airlines. A passenger is counted twice by an airline on a return flight, but counted four times by the airport, if he is changing planes. A transit passenger not only increases the passenger count but also spends anything between two to four hours in the transit lounge at the airport. Four hours is enough time to entice passengers to spend on snacks, drinks and high margin products in the Duty Free. In 2013 Dubai Duty Free posted total sales of USD 1.8 billion.

This is the reason the three airlines are clamouring for Indian passengers. However, it does not mean that the Indian aviation industry is doomed and foreign airlines will sabotage the market. The two new entrants will possibly have the options of going international without any cooling off period. The enhanced seat limits to the Middle East will benefit them. Air India will hopefully be privatized in the tenure of the next parliament and would end up in professional hands. The other low cost airlines would probably expand their international network or find their niche and allow the full service carriers to serve the long haul markets. All this is a lot of hope and probability, but a realistic one. Until then the passengers will keep on flying via the GCC hubs and contribute to their retail and passenger revenues. 

Bridging the city

The decennial growth rate of Delhi was registered at 1.98% in the census of 1911. A hundred years later the decennial growth is 20.96%. Though the growth has slowed down significantly from the peak of 53% in 1981, the population density of the city has almost trebled since then from 4,194/m² to 11,297 /m². Rapid growth over the past decades has put immense pressure on the resources of the city. Energy and water supplies are struggling to keep pace with the growing demand. The last decade of the twentieth century saw the opening up of the economy. Indian business flourished and foreign businesses invested heavily in the economy, which gave rise to the middle class. New money boosted consumption and created demand for personal vehicles among other things. The number of total vehicles registered in Delhi in 2011 stood at 7.43 million up from 521,457 in 1981. During the same period the number of private vehicle increased from 451,602 to 6.98 million.

Let there be space

Almost a quarter of the population of Delhi lives across the Yamuna (23.5%) in one of the densely populated parts of the city. The central business districts (CBD), which fall in central and south Delhi, force 707,503 (2012 estimates) vehicles to cross the eight bridges the city has, across the river Yamuna. The average time taken to cross these bridges is anywhere between 15 – 30 minutes. This not only leads to wastage of time but reduces productivity too. According to a 2009 study by Centre for Transforming India, an NGO, Delhi lost approximately INR 10 crore (USD 2 million, at INR 46 to a Dollar) every day in fuel wastage. On an average each vehicle lost 1.6 liters of fuel per day due to congestion and the exchequer lost INR 1.5 crore (USD 0.3 million) in fuel subsidies. Though there was no mention of the environmental impact of the wastage, it is safe to assume that carbon emissions increased significantly. Environmental pollution sparks other health related issues, especially among the young and old, shooting up health care costs and reducing overall productivity.

For a city of the size of Delhi, eight bridges is a joke. Similar cities around the world have anywhere between 12 – 30 bridges across their rivers. The Thames for example has 34 bridges in the Greater London area (including pedestrian bridges) while Chao Phraya in Bangkok has 14 (including two under construction) bridges. Delhi is in desperate need for new bridges to connect its densely populated east to the CDBs of South and centre. The pressure on bridges is not just from the city of Delhi but also from the satellite cities of Noida, Greater Noida, Gazhiabad and Faridabad. The pace of construction has been slow and the city got only one new bridge in the last ten years. The much publicized signature bridge is still under construction and reeling under multiple delays. The plans to construct a new train bridge replacing the 19^th century, “old Yamuna Bridge” are gathering dust for more than a decade now.

The Delhi Metro has made significant contribution in reducing vehicular traffic on Delhi roads and will ease the traffic more once the third phase is completed later this year. However the ever increasing population of the city will always keep its road infrastructure under pressure. The urban planners should wake up to the catastrophe looming on Delhi. More bridges will mean even distribution of traffic and hence removal of the artificial bottle necks.

Better connectivity across Yamuna will also create new CBDs. Access is one of the major parameters which attracts business. More connectivity across Yamuna will mean new opportunities for urban planners to plan and construct modern business centres for the city. This in turn will have an impact on the existing CBDs, in terms of possibly lower real estate prices and easing of congestion. The new business centres will not only attract corporate business but also generate local employment through associated services like restaurants, travel agencies, print shops, etc. The bridges not only have the potential to ease traffic congestion for commuters but can also prove to be a source of economic boom. 

Air Asia India – The hungry tiger

The stage is all set for Air Asia to become India’s latest Low cost airline. Last time a LCC (Low Cost Airline) started operations was in 2006 with Indigo, although Air Mantra (a Religare venture) started operations in 2012 but packed up before celebrating its first birthday a couple of days ago.  The brand Air Asia has built and its association with one of the most admired business houses in India has evoked mixed reactions. The media is upbeat with every move made by Air Asia monitored closely, the general public is happy to have another LCC in their basket of choice, Indian carriers are probably spending long hours in their boardrooms trying to thrash out a strategy to counter the latest threat and consultants are busy making predictions based on market information. Whatever the situation you might be in, for the industry these are very interesting times.

Coming to an airport near you

Last year proved to be sort of a disaster with Kingfisher going bust (well almost) and domestic passenger numbers dropping for the first time in many years. All the listed airlines are still running back and forth between red and black. Banks were skeptical towards aviation financing and private airports are also feeling the heat due to dwindling passenger numbers. Amid much gloom the ministry of civil aviation announced part liberalization of the industry by allowing 49% stake by foreign airlines (in Indian carriers) and recently discontinuing the aircraft acquisition approvals. The liberalisation was a silver lining in the dark skies. Following which two major announcements were made. Etihad announced its interest in buying equity in Jet Airways and Air Asia’s entry into India. The Jet-Etihad deal is in process and will open access to India’s domestic market, which will feed Etihad’s global network. Jet will benefit from much needed cash and a wider global network, which it could not develop on its own. However, the most exciting thing happening to Indian aviation is Air Asia’s entry into the market.

Ever since Simplyfly Deccan (later Air Deccan and Kingfisher Red) was launched in 2003 the Indian flyer associated LCC with low service (Deccan had extremely poor service reputation). That was until Spicejet and Indigo were launched. Many Indians started travelling by air and liked the low prices and good service. But after many IATA seasons Transport Journal feels that there is no longer a real low cost market in India. To start with Indian LCCs never had the advantage their European and South East Asian cousins had. Unlike other LCCs Indian LCCs have to pay the same airport charges at all Indian airports (more at private ones). The biggest advantage (of lower airport charges) simply does not exist for Indian LCCs. But LCC is not only about lower airport charges. There are many ways an airline can reduce costs. Almost all Indian LCCs must be doing those things. But then why isn’t there a true LCC market in India?

Ideally a LCC should transfer the benefits of low operating costs to its passengers by means of low fares. After all that’s their USP. Transport Journal did a quick internet search for fares on a popular online travel shop. Three busy routes were chosen and fares were compared for 1 July 2013 and 1 September 2013 (three and six months hence). The results confirmed the hypothesis. The table below shows the fares in INR (fares were same for 1 July and 1 September) offered by major airlines –

Sector	Air India	Go Air	Indigo	Jet Airways	JetKonnect	Spicejet
DEL – BOM	3,981	3,906	3,906	4,033	3,876	3,906
MAA – BLR	2,280	-	2,175	2,280	2,175	2,611
DEL – BLR	4,852	4,609	4,609	4,904	4,663	4,609

In the above table the maximum difference between a LCC and legacy carrier fare is INR 295. As a passenger one does not have to think long to make a choice. At INR 295 more there is a full range of hot meal, a newspaper, free water, tea and coffee and of course the frequent flier miles. On the other hand one has to pay anywhere between INR 100 to 200 for a cold sandwich and a drink on board a LCC. So why almost three quarters of Indians are flying on LCCs? The answer lies in the capacity offered on legacy carriers. The legacy carriers have decided to offer more capacity on their LCC arms. And this is why Transport Journal thinks there is no true LCC market in India. The miniscule fare difference suggests that either the airlines are not passing on the benefits to passengers or they are keeping the fares artificially low to survive. Either case is a bad business plan.

 “Airlines waste a lot of money when guests do not show up for a flight due to refunds and rescheduling. Whether a guest shows up or not, the cost of flight to the airline is the same. LCC are unforgiving to no show guests and do not offer refunds for missed flights”.

Air Asia is ruthless when it comes to its business model. The above statement on Air Asia’s investor relations page speaks a lot on how seriously they want to stick to the fundamentals of LCC business. Air Asia has a perfect chance to shake up the airlines business in India. Indian LCCs will have to change the way they do business. Air Asia like other professional LCCs charges for everything from first piece of checked-in bag to a hot meal and offers many ancillary services like hotels, tours, insurance, etc. Free boarding ensures quick turnaround (Director General of Civil Aviation of India is not a great fan of this procedure) and works well for Air Asia. It manages twelve block hours a day ensuring high aircraft utilization and hence more revenue. Air Asia also hedges 100% of its fuel and manages to absorb price shocks.

Having said all this we should not forget that India is a very difficult market to work in. Many tried and tested strategies have failed in India (India is probably the only country where Coca Cola is forced to retain a second cola brand). Indian consumers have rejected popular sales format and multi nationals were forced to come up with India specific marketing strategies. Will Air Asia be able to replicate its model in India is yet to be seen. But Indian LCCs will have to prepare a grand strategy to deal with the hungry tiger.

Trains and the economy – case of New Delhi railway station

India has one of the largest rail networks in the world measuring more than 64,000 kilometres. According to the land and amenities directorate of Indian railways the total land holding under railways is 4,318 square kilometres, second only to the defence land holdings. Railway in India is a state monopoly and like most state run enterprises is highly inefficient and sluggish. A case in point is stations in Delhi. New Delhi railway station was commissioned in 1926 with a single track and a single platform. Then outside the old city and away from the newly built Lutyens’ Delhi it finds itself today amidst one of the most congested areas of the city. The station itself is a chaos. Depending on which source you look up there are anywhere between 360,000 to 500,000 passengers using the facility every single day (or 131.4 – 182.5 million a year). A total of 16 platforms handle around 300 trains a day.

Free boarding 

Access to the station is a nightmare and platforms are crowded throughout the day with scarce seating. Retail offer is substandard and vendors have arbitrary pricing. Festive seasons see a sudden spurt in passenger numbers. In the past years there have been incidents of stampede leading to death and injury during festive seasons. Poor visibility conditions in northern India during winters spell disaster for the limited infrastructure of the station. Many trains are cancelled or delayed leading to passenger build up on platforms.  Congested waiting rooms do not help to ease the situation either. A lot needs to be done to improve passenger convenience. Another aspect that makes the New Delhi railway station interesting is its location and 860,000 square metres it occupies in the central business district area. Redevelopment of the station will not only provide better passenger amenities but also give a boost to local real estate market which is struggling with shortage of space.

The huge volumes handled by the train station require specialist planning and operating procedures to manage the passenger flow. Being a terminus it is unlike other stations where trains arrive and depart after a short halt. The passengers arrive well in advance of their departure time and wait on the platforms with other passengers. At a given time there might be passengers waiting for four different trains scheduled to depart from the same platform within a few hours. This creates chaos and unwanted congestion. Arriving passengers on the same platform then add to the problem and passenger flow is seriously hampered and passenger safety undermined. Provisions should be made to segregate arriving and departing passengers like at airports. This will create more space for passenger flow and improve safety standards.

A multi level station complex with separate arriving and departing areas will double the passenger processing space. Separate waiting areas with retail offers will generate more revenue and improve passenger services. Standard operating procedures spelling out step wise details of passenger processing from the moment passengers enter the station building till they depart will harmonise passenger handling. Adequate holding areas will also act as buffer to handle delays. The flow might work in a way that passengers arrive at the departure level and are segregated depending on their departure time. Passengers arriving close to their departure time will be sent to gate areas linked to their platform and early arrivals will be directed to a common waiting lounge. Security checks can be done in the gates area prior to final departure. Similarly arriving passengers will be processed at arrivals level and will leave the station building according to the arrival procedures. A separate procedure for trains with short halts will have to be put in place. This can be in form of dedicated platforms with separate access points.

Bringing in operational efficiency is definitely a priority, but harnessing the business potential of the location should also be part of the plan. In a small scale it has already started happening with Delhi Metro. Many metro stations now have multi story business centres and shopping malls. High passenger volumes and proximity to the central business district will make the New Delhi station area very attractive. The huge land area available can be used for office complexes, mid range and budget hotels, shopping areas, restaurant, employee welfare, and so on. Redevelopment of the station complex will have a significant contribution in the local economy in the long run. The railways too will benefit from efficient operations and can ensure a safe journey to passengers.

Waiting for the connecting flight

Kingfisher Airlines’ license has been suspended and Mr. Mallya is nowhere to be found. Newspapers are pouring in a lot of ink to cover how the mighty falls. To be fair it was inevitable. There was too much capacity in the skies and irrational fares were the norm. Fares were not cost based but Air India based (Air India offered unrealistically low fares to grab market share unleashing a fare war). These are perks of a developing aviation market. What is strange however is the unwise use of the excess capacity.

Ever since the Delhi and Mumbai airports were privatized the media and the ministry of civil aviation (MoCA) rubbed two words deep in our minds. So deep that we used them without thinking what they really mean. The words were, “world class” and “hub”. Every one promised world class infrastructure, we all expected world class infrastructure, the ministry talked about turning India into a world class hub, a global hub and sometimes just a hub. India did get a lot of modern looking terminals in the past couple of years, I will leave it for the passengers to decide whether they are world class or not. But the other word, “hub” seems to elude India even after the modern terminals became operational.

Where is my hub?

A hub is an airport where people fly in from different corners of the world, change the aircraft and fly on to their destinations. A good example would be Dubai in the Middle East or Frankfurt in Europe. MoCA (irrespective of the minister in charge) always propagated the idea of turning Delhi and Mumbai into a hub. Before commissioning of the integrated terminal three at Delhi, hub operations were difficult due to two separate locations for international and domestic operations. This has been taken care of now by terminal three. Still Delhi is nothing close to a hub. Currently Delhi airport has close to 10% of its total traffic as transfer traffic. A large chunk of which is international to domestic transfer. The trend will not be much different for Mumbai either. Compared to 10% transfers at Delhi/Mumbai Dubai and Frankfurt have close to 50% transfer traffic.

City pair	Air India	Jet Airways	Emirates	Qatar Airways
LHR – HKG	0	1/1.5/BOM	2/1.5/DXB	4/1-2/DOH
LHR – SIN	0	2/12-23/BOM	4/2-3/DXB	4/1-6/DOH
LHR – SIN	-	1/12/DEL	-	-
LHR – PEK	0	0	5/3-5/DXB	4/1.5/DOH
LHR – TYO	1/10/DEL	0	2/2.5/DXB	4/2-7/DOH
LHR = London; HKG; HKG = Hong Kong; SIN = Singapore; PEK; Beijing: TYO = Tokyo; BOM = Mumbai; DEL = Delhi; DXB = Dubai; DOH = Doha
Source: Availability display from Galileo for 12 November 2012

Waiting for my connecting flight

The above table is a snapshot of connections between popular business destinations in Asia and Europe. Air India, the national carrier offers only one connection between London and Tokyo with an extremely long layover of ten hours. Jet Airways, a private airline offers four but only one with a practical connecting time. On the contrary the Middle Eastern carriers offer multiple choices with extremely convenient connecting times at their respective hub. This is how poor the hub connectivity at Indian airports is.

So what is stopping Indian carriers from taking the plunge? Well the answer lies in the poor connectivity offered by Indian carriers (as shown in the table) and a lack of stakeholder coordination (airports, airlines and MoCA). For a very long time MoCA protected Air India by holding back flying rights for private airlines, not letting them fly on profitable routes, onerous process of approvals for fleet acquisition, high taxation, etc. There is no point in discussing what benefits Air India got from all this protectionism. After several strikes and routine operational delays the airline is surviving on taxpayer’s money.

Lets do the obvious

Protection of Air India is however just one of the reasons. Indian carriers can be a bit more enterprising when it comes to network planning. As shown in the table they lack connectivity between the most obvious destinations. London-Hong Kong market for example is big enough with seven direct flights and more than 20 indirect flights, all operated with wide body aircraft. Add to this a strong origin and destination market from India (both London – India and Hong Kong – India) and the Indian carriers can easily ensure high load factors. London – Hong Kong route might look over crowded but there are other less crowded markets to be connected and Indian carriers can use the geographical location of India to their advantage. A collaborative effort of airlines, airports and the government agencies is needed, where the airline is supported by the airport in its ambition of network expansion and the government provides a level playing field minus the bureaucracy.

There is no reason why Indian carriers cannot connect Jakarta to London or Manila to Riyadh via Delhi/Mumbai. A huge political change is unfolding in India’s backyard. Myanmar is opening up and businesses all over the world are eagerly waiting to set shops there. Consultants, bankers, politicians, project managers, and their teams will swarm in once the sanctions are lifted from Myanmar. This is a great opportunity, which needs to be assessed and seized at the right time. It will be too late once Qatar Airways or Flydubai start flying there twice a day. Some of the excess capacity can definitely shifted to routes outside India.

Urban Transport in India - Part 2, The case of Delhi

With a population of 16.7 million and around five more million in the suburbs, Delhi has only one reliable mode of public transport. The Delhi Metro which started operations in December 2002 has connected the most congested and far flung areas of Delhi to the suburbs. This has offered residents of Delhi access to convenient mode of travelling. However, the situation is much different in 2012 when the total length of the network reached 190 km. Rush hours see over packed trains where passengers struggle to get in and out. Initially stared with four coaches, the trains now have eight. With a wider network ridership has increased and so has the congestion in the trains. The average daily ridership of Delhi Metro during June 2012 was 1.9 million, (imagine entire population of Dubai and Brisbane travelling on a single day).

Though the metro is taking all steps to make the ride smooth the problem of plenty seems to persist. In its current phase the metro lines are being extended to create more interchange stations to take some burden of the three interchanges the network currently has. However, depending on metro to solve all the problems is not a good idea. What needs to be done is to integrate other modes of transport with metro. The metro did start with feeder bus services from select stations but the plan was flawed and did not meet the desired results. With no experience of running a bus fleet, Metro withdrew from the plan. The Delhi government should take it over and reintroduce the system with an improved plan.

Not everyone stays close to a metro station. Sometimes the last mile to and from the station takes as long as the metro ride (often costing as much), this is not an incentive to use the system. A well planned feeder bus service will help commuters reduce the last mile travelled and hence shorten the total commuting time. The government can look at a Public Private Partnership model since it already has tested it on one of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes. Feeder buses can also link the metro stations to major bus terminals in the city to ensure easy change of transport mode.

Another mode of public transport in Delhi is the city bus service run by Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC). The bus fleet was replaced with modern high capacity buses in time for the Common Wealth Games in 2010. With the games over the fleet has started ageing faster than it should have. The schedules are rarely published and almost never followed. This creates a situation where commuters are often stranded without any bus on a particular route or five of them at the same time. Though GPS is installed in all the modern buses no one seems to know how to use the device. There needs to be a complete overhaul of the system with a published schedule and strictly following it. Integrating it with the metro system and also acting as an alternate to the system.

When the heavens open up

Commuters in Mumbai depend on the suburban rail network that carries millions to and from work every single day. The same is almost nonexistent in Delhi. Only a handful of suburban trains ply during peak hours and are more popular with commuters coming from neighbouring cities. Delhi has a rail network which covers most of central, eastern and western Delhi. The rail network also connects the suburbs of Gurgaon, Faridabad and Ghaziabad. The network can easily be used for light railway which will have the advantage of higher speed. This will act as an additional mode of transport and will complement the existing metro network. It will also be easy to finance the trains since there will be no need to build new tracks. An increase in number of these trains will bring regions of Delhi even closer. However, the suburbs will get the maximum benefit out of such move. There is a plan by the ministry of railways to introduce high speed trains to neighbouring cities of Delhi. However the economic feasibility of this project is under serious doubt, given the high cost (expensive rolling stock and probably dedicated tracks) resulting in high fares. On the contrary an efficient suburban light railway will bring more benefits at a lower cost.

Once the integration is in place and the factors slowing down the traffic are mitigated the government should look at a sustainable transport system. Congestion charges, peak hour charges, premium parking rates all help in encouraging people to shift to public transport and reduce congestion on roads. Finally, what Delhi is not fit for is a BRT. Unless there are long starches of road without intersections BRT is a disaster as it has proved to be in Delhi.

Urban Transport in India – Part 1

This is a two part series on urban transport in India. In the first part I have discussed the problems urban transport in India is facing. In the second part I will take up the case of Delhi to discuss some issues and some solutions. Hope you will enjoy the series. 

Peak hour traffic in urban India is a nightmare. Large metropolitan areas and tier II cities both face sever congestion on their roads. The congestion is not limited to roads; other modes of transport like the suburban trains in Mumbai and the metro network in Delhi too face congestion in form of overcrowding. Commuters spend many hours travelling to and from work (sometimes as long as 2 hours each way). The rapid economic growth in India in the past decade has put a lot of stress on urban infrastructure which, failed to keep pace with the economic growth. Traffic congestion not only leads to long commuting hours but leaves a huge economic burden on the country. Estimates by the Highways Term Maintenance Association of the UK suggest that congestion costs the UK economy around GBP 20 billion a year in wasted time and resources and lost business. A similar study for Sao Paulo carried out by the Economist Intelligence Unit puts the cost of congestion at USD 20 billion (in 2008). These estimates do not include the environmental cost. If we give a value to the damage caused by resulting pollution the total cost will be many folds the current estimates.

According to the census report of 2011, urban population of India increased by 31.8%, from 286 million in 2001 to 377 million in 2011. Increasing population and more and more families entering the middle income group every year puts a lot of stress on the urban infrastructure. This double impact of population and prosperity is proving to be an urban planner’s biggest challenge. Traffic congestion is not unique to India. World over developing and developed countries have their own problems with urban traffic. In India a large share of responsibility of congestion can be assigned to lack of proper planning.

The case of Delhi and Mumbai stands out as example of lack of urban planning in India. Congestion on roads is mainly caused by three reasons, volumes of vehicle beyond the capacity of roads, slowing down of traffic and accidents. There is no single solution to solve the three problems. As mentioned earlier an increasing population and growing prosperity will lead to higher demand for vehicles. An increase in population also puts stress on availability of land for transport infrastructure. Urban planners should look at creating new business districts so that commuters do not converge on a single location. Delhi in recent years has seen its suburbs (Noida and Gurgaon) grow as alternate locations for business districts. However, the sole means of reliable public transport connecting Delhi to these cities is the metro network (started just over a year ago). Due to lack of reliable public transport commuters are forced to drive, leading to congestion and long travelling hours.

The bumps on the road

A road shaped like a bottle

Slowing down of traffic is the most intriguing of the reasons for congestion. Many a time commuters find themselves crawling in a traffic jam for long time and then all of a sudden they reach a point where there is no congestion. While there might not be a visible sign of the cause of the congestion, there are various reason which might slow the traffic down. Poor road condition is one of the top reasons. Potholes tend to slow the cars down since no one likes a bumpy ride, loose debris from damaged asphalt surface make vehicles prone to skid, water logging after rains leaves the commuters guessing as to what lies under the murky pool, a pothole or level road? Fixing these problems or even better preventing them from occurring will eliminate slowing down of traffic.

Encroachments are yet another reason for slowing down of traffic. The encroachments on public roads range from a kiosk selling knick knacks to shops displaying their wares on the footpaths. The encroachments force the pedestrians to walk on the roads and over a period of time the encroachments become permanent, robbing the road of its original width. Major roads in Delhi and Mumbai have many such encroachments and the urban planning agencies have done little to reclaim the space. Kolkata is probably the worst example of lack of dealing with such encroachments. With exception of Salt Lake there is hardly any public road which is sans encroachment. Encroachment in Kolkata is so aggressive that people have built residential units on public roads. These encroachments create bottle necks and slow down the traffic to a snail’s pace.

Lack of coordination between multiple civic agencies adds to the problem. Utilities departments like water, sewage, electricity, etc have their independent schedules for various civil works. Instead of coordinating and digging the roads once, they do their work one after the other. Leaving the roads dug for months together. Another problem is lack of standard procedures for taking over public roads for civil works and handing them back after the work is done. Once dug the excavated earth lies on the shoulders of the roads further reducing the available space. On completion of the work the excavated earth is filled in the trenches without proper settling procedure and without paving the exposed surface. The result is an ever sinking stretch of road, which makes it impossible for the commuters to use the road to its full capacity. Lack of pragmatic thinking is yet another aspect which leads to slowing down of traffic in many cases. Electric poles in front of traffic signals, bus shelters at busy intersections, unpainted speed bumps, all lead to chaos.

As it is clear there is no one solution to the urban transport mess we live in. It probably will never be perfect, given that we the users will keep increasing faster than the pace of expansion of our cities. Having said that there are ways and means by which congestion on the road can be reduced, making it easier for commuters to reach offices and back home, for emergency services to reach in time and so on.